Texas Holdem Tip #8 - Calculate Pot Odds And More . . .
“You’ve got to know when to hold’em. Know when to fold’em.” But how?
Unless you are bluffing, you make a bet when the pot odds are less than your actual probability of winning. This seems complicated, but it is just some simple math to figure it out. This is an extension of our previous texas holdem tip on knowing the odds and is especially important when you are facing bullies and other aggressive players.
First we need to know the number of “outs” that we have. “Outs” are the number of cards left that will give us the winning hand. For example, you have a hand with an 8 and 9. The flop has 7, 10, and king. You have a straight if a 6 or jack comes on the turn or river. There are 4 sixes and 4 jacks in the deck for a total of 8 outs.
After the flop comes the Rule of 4 - To calculate the odds of winning multiply the number of outs by 4. In our example, 4 times 8 outs equals an approximate 32% chance of winning.
After the turn comes the Rule of 2 - To calculate the odds of winning multiply the number of outs by 2. In our example, 2 times 8 outs equals an approximate 16% chance of winning.
Second, we need to calculate the pot odds. The pot odds are your bet divided by the pot plus your bet. Odds = B/(B+P).
For example, if the pot is $30 and you need to bet $10 to call then the pot odds are 10/(10+30) = 10/40 = 25%.
Now, lets apply this tip to a couple of texas holdem hands …
Scenario #1: You hold QH, 10H. The flop comes 2H, 3H, 9D. The pot is $30 and you need to bet $10 to call. Do you do it?
Yes, you make the call. You have 9 heart outs to make a flush. Using the rule of 4, we see that the odds of winning are 4 x 9 = 36%. The pot odds are 10/(10+30) = 10/40 = 25%. Since your odds of winning (36%) are greater than the pot odds (25%) you make the bet. Doing this is profitable in the long run.
Scenario #2: Using the same hand, the turn card is KS. The pot is $40 when your opponent makes a $20 bet to push the pot to $60. Do you call?
No, you should fold this poker hand. You may be excited to have a potential straight if a jack comes on the river. There are 4 jacks, but since one of them is a heart there are only 3 new outs. The odds of winning now are 2 x 12 outs = 24%. The pot odds are $20/(20+60) = 20/80 = 25%. Your odds of winning (24%) are less than the required odds (25%), so making the call is a losing proposition. You should fold the hand.
In scenario #1, we were getting the right odds to call. In scenario #2, we improved the number of outs available to us but had a worse situation so we folded. Remember that in texas holdem all odds change as each additional card is dealt. Here is our texas holdem tip: always calculate the odds so that you recognize when you have the advantage. See you at the tables …
4 months ago